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Tuesday, January 06, 2009

The completed family size is given by Total Fertility Rate

Question 45
The completed family size is given by
a.       Birth Rate
b.      Death Rate
c.      Total Fertility Rate
d.      Age Specific Fertility Rate
Answer
c. Total Fertility Rate
Reference
Park 18th Edition Page 353
QTDF
Park
Quality
Reader
Status
New
Discussion
The total fertility rate (TFR, sometimes also called the fertility rate, period total fertility rate (PTFR) or total period fertility rate (TPFR)) of a population is the average number of children that would be born to a woman over her lifetime if she were to experience the exact current age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) through her lifetime. It is obtained by summing the age-specific rates for a given time-point.
Explanation
While in Common parlance, family size refers to the total number of persons in a family, in demography, family size means the total number of children a woman has borne at a point in time. The completed family size includes the total number of children borne by a woman during here child bearing age, which is generally assumed to be between 15 and 45 years. The total fertility rate gives the approximate magnitude of completed family size.
Comments
The TFR (or TPFR) is a better index of fertility than the Crude birth rate (annual number of births per thousand population) because it is independent of the age structure of the population, but it is a poorer estimate of actual completed family size than the total cohort fertility rate, which is obtained by summing the age-specific fertility rates that actually applied to each cohort as they aged through time. In particular, the TFR does not necessarily predict how many children young women now will eventually have, as their fertility rates in years to come may change from those of older women now. However, the TFR is a reasonable summary of current fertility levels.
Tips
Ä     The TFR is a synthetic rate, not something that is actually counted. It is not based on the fertility of any real group of women, since this would involve waiting until they had completed childbearing. Nor is it based on counting up the total number of children actually born over their lifetime, but instead is based on the age-specific fertility rates of women in their "child-bearing years," which in conventional international statistical usage is ages 15-44 or 15-49.
Ä     The TFR is therefore a measure of the fertility of an imaginary woman who passes through her reproductive life subject to all the age-specific fertility rates for ages 15-49 that were recorded for a given population in a given year. The TFR represents the average number of children a woman would have were she to fast-forward through all her childbearing years in a single year, under all the age-specific fertility rates for that year. In other words, this rate is the number of children a woman would have if she was subject to prevailing fertility rates at all ages from a single given year, and survives throughout all her childbearing years.
Ä     An alternative fertility measure is the net reproduction rate (NRR), which measures the number of daughters a woman would have in her lifetime if she were subject to prevailing age-specific fertility and mortality rates in the given year. When the NRR is exactly one then each generation of women is exactly reproducing itself. The NRR is less widely used than the TFR, and the United Nations stopped reporting NRR data for member nations after 1998. But the NRR is particularly relevant where the number of male babies born is very high. The gross reproduction rate (GRR), is the same as the NRR, except that - like the TFR - it ignores life expectancy.

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