MCQsOnline - Online Collection of MCQs of Medical PG Entrance Exams.

MCQ stands for Multiple Choice Questions sometimes called as Objective type questions. Here we discuss the Old Question Papers, High Yield Points and Strategies with respect to the Indian Medical Post Graduate PG Entrance Exams like AIIMS,AIPG, JIPMER, CMC Vellore, PGI Chandigarh, UPSC, TNPSC, State PG Exams like Tamil Nadu PG (TN PG), Delhi PG, UPPG, Tamilnadu PG (TNPG), Karnataka PG, MAHE, COMED-K etc.

Target PG

PG Preparation

Related Portals

Search This Site

If you cannot locate what you want to find, please search using the box given below

Tuesday, January 06, 2009

About Delphi method Formation of a team to undertake and monitor a Delphi on a given subject.

Question 55
About Delphi method
a.       Formation of a team to undertake and monitor a Delphi on a given subject.
b.      Selection of one or more panels to participate in the exercise. Customarily, the panelists are experts in the area to be investigated.
c.       Development of the first round Delphi questionnaire
d.      All are true
Answer
d. All are true
Reference
QTDF
??
Quality
Reader
Status
New
Discussion
The Delphi method is a systematic interactive forecasting method for obtaining forecasts from a panel of independent experts. The carefully selected experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds. After each round, a facilitator provides an anonymous summary of the experts’ forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their judgments. Thus, participants are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of the group. It is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the "correct" answer. Finally, the process is stopped after a pre-defined stop criterion (e.g. number of rounds, achievement of consensus, stability of results) and the mean or median scores of the final rounds determine the results.
Delphi  is based on well-researched principles and provides forecasts that are more accurate than those from unstructured groups. The technique can be adapted for use in face-to-face meetings, and is then called mini-Delphi or Estimate-Talk-Estimate (ETE). Delphi has been widely used for business forecasting and has certain advantages over another structured forecasting approach: prediction markets.
Explanation
Fowles (1978) describes the following ten steps for the Delphi method:
  1. Formation of a team to undertake and monitor a Delphi on a given subject.
  2. Selection of one or more panels to participate in the exercise. Customarily, the panelists are experts in the area to be investigated.
  3. Development of the first round Delphi questionnaire
  4. Testing the questionnaire for proper wording (e.g., ambiguities, vagueness)
  5. Transmission of the first questionnaires to the panelists
  6. Analysis of the first round responses
  7. Preparation of the second round questionnaires (and possible testing)
  8. Transmission of the second round questionnaires to the panelists
  9. Analysis of the second round responses (Steps 7 to 9 are reiterated as long as desired or necessary to achieve stability in the results.)
  10. Preparation of a report by the analysis team to present the conclusions of the exercise
Comments
The most important issue in this process is the understanding of the aim of the Delphi exercise by all participants. Otherwise the panelists may answer inappropriately or become frustrated and lose interest. The respondents to the questionnaire should be well informed in the appropriate area but the literature suggest that a high degree of expertise is not necessary. The minimum number of participants to ensure a good group performance is somewhat dependent on the study design. Experiments by Brockhoff  suggest that under ideal circumstances, groups as small as four can perform well.
Tips
Free software for conducting Delphi studies is available at http://armstrong.wharton.upenn.edu/delphi2/

No comments:

Post a Comment